Eight in a row for Bayern, woe for Werder Bremen - Stats Perform AI completes Bundesliga season

Oleh Nicholas McGee 5 April 2020 1
Eight in a row for Bayern, woe for Werder Bremen - Stats Perform AI completes Bundesliga season

Daily life around the world has largely drawn to a standstill due to the coronavirus pandemic, with most professional sport on hold for the foreseeable future.

With the outbreak occurring at a particularly inopportune moment for top-level football in Europe, the situation has bred uncertainty across most leagues – including Germany's Bundesliga.

Competitions in Europe are facing the question of whether finishing the season, regardless of the impact it may have on future campaigns, should be the priority once normality returns.

The current focus does appear to be on concluding the 2019-20 campaign. However, even with Euro 2020 pushed back by 12 months, clubs and leagues are still having to work to tight schedules, with UEFA requesting seasons finish by the end of June.

Any resumption in Bundesliga action will have to wait until at least April 30, a date that already seems ambitious, with a further extension of the hiatus looking inevitable.

While the discussion over how to complete the schedule continues, the Stats Perform AI team have crunched the numbers behind the scenes.

With 16 of the Bundesliga's 18 teams having completed 25 of 34 matches, their goal was to simulate how the rest of the season would pan out if the games were played now to produce a predicted 2019-20 table.

Bayern Munich march to another title in our simulation.

The statistical model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality.

Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.

The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly.

All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.

The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.

Without further ado, let's have a good look at the results of the simulation with the predicted final league table.

The predicted Bundesliga table based on our simulation.

EIGHT IN A ROW FOR BAYERN

The dominance Bayern have enjoyed of the Bundesliga since the 2012-13 season has rarely looked more under threat than it did earlier this campaign.

However, after floundering under Niko Kovac, they have been revitalised by Hansi Flick, who was rewarded for their turnaround this week with a permanent contract until 2023.

Bayern led by four points at the top when the season was brought to a halt, and our model has them finishing seven clear to clinch an eighth successive title.

They are given an 87.8 per cent chance to claim first place. The odds of them surrendering their advantage are comparatively minuscule.

The simulation gives Bayern just a 9.6 per cent chance of finishing as runners-up and a 2.3 per cent probability of tumbling to third.

NOTHING TO SEPARATE LEIPZIG & DORTMUND

RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund are Bayern's two closest challengers at the top, with a once crowded title race splintering and leaving just three genuine contenders.

Leipzig were a point behind second-placed Dortmund when the season was suspended, their goal difference superior by a single goal.

The model has Leipzig edging Dortmund for second, with each finishing on 68 points. Leipzig have a full percentage point better chance of finishing second than Dortmund (42.6 to 41.6).

However, the simulation gives Dortmund superior odds of overhauling Bayern to lift the title.

Dortmund have a 7.1 per cent chance of finishing top, compared to 4.6 per cent for Julian Nagelsmann's Leipzig.

Borussia Monchengladbach could not keep up with the pace at the top.

LEVERKUSEN LOSE OUT TO GLADBACH IN UCL RACE

The race for fourth place and the final Champions League qualification berth is a two-horse one between Borussia Monchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen.

Gladbach had a two-point advantage over Leverkusen before the campaign was put on hiatus.

The simulation has Leverkusen halving the deficit, but Gladbach ultimately holding on to seal a return to Europe's elite club competition.

It is Leverkusen who are given the better odds of moving up to third in the table, however.

Leverkusen have assembled a talented young squad, but what damage would missing out on the Champions League do to their hopes of keeping hold of star forward Kai Havertz?

WOE FOR WERDER, PADERBORN PLUMMET

Unsurprisingly given their tally of 16 points from 25 games, the simulation has Paderborn finishing at the foot of the table. They have just a 6.3 per cent chance of avoiding automatic relegation.

Of more significance to the landscape of German football would be Werder Bremen joining them in the 2. Bundesliga.

The four-time Bundesliga champions have been relegated just once in their history, but the simulation has them suffering an agonising drop into the second tier.

Fortuna Dusseldorf are projected to finish just two points clear of Werder, who have a game in hand against Eintracht Frankfurt, and end the season in the relegation play-off place.

Mainz - four points clear of Dusseldorf when the league was put on hold - are simulated to maintain that gap and avoid the drop.

Tentang Penulis

Nicholas McGee

Komen